Velhas lições, novas explicações

Não quero criticar o conteúdo da citação do Friedman que o Claudio Shikida colocou no post anterior, mas políticas monetárias não bastam para explicar ou controlar a crise atual. As teorias de ciclos precisam destacar e arranjar elementos causais atuais para iluminar cada bolha e depressão. Como dizia Ludwig Lachmann:

The task of trade cycle theory is therefore not confined, as it has been so often in the past, to explaining the similarities of successive fluctuations. The dissimilarities also have to be accounted for. It is certainly our task to indicate causes for downturn and upturn, and to analyse the cumulative processes of expansion and contraction. But on the evidence we have no right to believe that these causes will always be the same, nor to doubt that their relative force will vary from case to case. Similar causes will of course produce similar results. The dissimilarites we observe have then to be explained by the large number of potential causes not all of which become actual in each instance. The similarities are too many for the group of possible causes to be very large, but the dissimilarities are too many for it to be very small.